ANKARA – As forces against Syrian President Bashar Assad make swift and vital advances in Syria, Turkey is watching intently for any spillover. Turkey, which shares a 911-kilometer- (566 mile-) lengthy frontier with Syria, has been a major backer of opposition teams aiming to topple Assad because the outbreak of the Syrian civil struggle in 2011. The battle led to a refugee inflow and Turkey now hosts 3 million Syrians.
Turkish officers have strongly rejected claims of any involvement within the offensive that’s being led by the jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in addition to an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias known as the Syrian Nationwide Military.
Analysts nonetheless, consider that the offensive, which seems to be aligned with Turkey’s long-time objectives, couldn’t have gone forward with out Ankara’s consent. It has allowed Turkey to push again in opposition to Kurdish forces in Syria allied to its sworn enemy, the Kurdistan Staff Social gathering, or PKK.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday appeared guilty his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad, for the latest developments.
“We had made a name to Assad. We mentioned, ‘Come, let’s meet, let’s decide the way forward for Syria collectively.’ Sadly, we couldn’t get a constructive response from Assad,” Erdogan mentioned.
“These troublesome marches that proceed all through the area will not be what we wish.”
Right here’s a have a look at Turkey’s place, how the flareup might serve the nation’s goals and potential dangers forward:
Ties with Syria
Turkey has said its assist for Syria’s territorial integrity: the very last thing it needs is a Kurdish-controlled autonomous area on it border.
Ankara has carried out a number of incursions into Syria since 2016 with the goal of pushing again the Islamic State group or Kurdish militants and making a buffer zone alongside its border, and now controls a stretch of territory in northern Syria.
Turkey has known as for a discount of tensions and reconciliation between Syria’s authorities and the opposition. It has been concerned in diplomatic efforts to resolve the battle, together with holding talks with Assad’s major supporters, Russia and Iran.
Lately Ankara has sought a reconciliation with Assad so as to mitigate the menace to Turkey from Kurdish militias and make sure the secure return of refugees. Assad has rebuffed Turkey’s overtures.
The place Turkey stands
Turkish officers have strongly rejected claims of involvement within the anti-government offensive, stating opposition to developments that enhance instability within the area.
“All statements that declare Turkey provoked or that Turkey supported this are unfaithful. They’re all lies,” mentioned Omer Celik, spokesman for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling social gathering. “What we wish in Syria isn’t in any method a rise in violence or clashes.”
Analysts say, nonetheless, that the insurgent offensive would have been unimaginable with out a inexperienced mild from Turkey. Regardless of designating HTS as a terrorist group, Turkey is believed to exert vital affect over the group.
Turkish officers say Ankara stalled the offensive for months. Opposition forces lastly went forward with the assault after the Syrian authorities attacked opposition-held areas, violating agreements between Russia, Iran and Turkey to de-escalate the battle.
The offensive was initially meant to be restricted, the officers mentioned, however expanded after Syrian authorities forces started retreating from their positions.
Gonul Tol, director of the U.S.-based Center East Institutes’ Turkish Program, says Ankara doesn’t have full management over HTS, however has offered oblique assist, permitting support vehicles to move to the HTS stronghold of Idlib. The settlement between Turkey, Russia and Iran additionally helped the group to thrive, Tol mentioned.
Dangers forward
The offensive might pose a number of dangers to Turkey, together with stoking tensions with Syria’s backers, Iran and Russia. Turkey, a NATO member, has sought to stability shut relations with both Ukraine and Russia within the face of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of its southern neighbor.
Rising instability in Syria might ship a brand new wave of refugees towards the Turkish border.
Tol, who’s the creator of a e book on Turkey and Syria, mentioned that though Russia is preoccupied with the struggle in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin could be unwilling to see Assad fall.
“I doubt Russia goes to surrender on Assad,” Tol mentioned. “Syria is simply too vital for Putin.”
Alignment of objectives
The insurgents’ offensive has raised hopes that Turkey could obtain its strategic goals in Syria, together with securing its southern borders and facilitating the secure return of Syrian refugees.
Since 2022, Turkey has sought to normalize relations with Syria. Nevertheless, Assad insists on the withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria, whereas Turkey maintains it can not withdraw so long as threats from Kurdish militias persist.
Analysts consider the offensive might stress Assad into reconciliation with Turkey and interesting in negotiations with the Syrian opposition.
Moreover, it could permit Turkey to push the Syrian Kurdish Folks’s Safety Models, the YPG, away from its borders. Regardless of the YPG’s alliance with the U.S. in opposition to the Islamic State group, Turkey views it as a terrorist group.
Lately, one other opposition power, the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military, expelled the YPG from Tal Rifaat, north of Aleppo. The chief of Turkey’s nationalist social gathering, an Erdogan ally, has known as for concentrating on the Kurdish-held metropolis of Manbij subsequent.
There are additionally hopes that opposition management of Aleppo will encourage refugees to return, with Inside Minister Ali Yerlikaya noting that about 40% of Syrian refugees in Turkey are from Aleppo.
Nevertheless, Tol famous that Turkey could not be capable to management the HTS because it forges forward and pursues its personal pursuits. “The query is, will the HTS hearken to Erdogan after having gained a lot floor?” she mentioned.
Tol added: “HTS are a wild card. Does Turkey actually desire a jihadist group to be working a neighboring nation?”
Copyright 2024 The Related Press. All rights reserved. This materials is probably not revealed, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed with out permission.