What to know about sudden rebel gains in Syria’s 13-year war and why it matters

WASHINGTON – The 13-year civil struggle in Syria has roared again into prominence with a surprise rebel offensive on Aleppo, one in every of Syria’s largest cities and an historical enterprise hub. The push is among the many rebels’ strongest in years in a struggle whose destabilizing results have rippled far past the nation’s borders.

It was the primary opposition assault on Aleppo since 2016, when a brutal air marketing campaign by Russian warplanes helped Syrian President Bashar Assad retake the northwestern metropolis. Intervention by Russia, Iran and Iranian-allied Hezbollah and different teams has allowed Assad to stay in energy, inside the 70% of Syria below his management.

The surge in preventing has raised the prospect of one other violent entrance reopening within the Center East, at a time when U.S.-backed Israel is preventing Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, each Iranian-allied teams.

Robert Ford, the last-serving U.S. ambassador to Syria, pointed to months of Israeli strikes on Syrian and Hezbollah targets within the space, and to Israel’s ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon this week, as components offering Syria’s rebels with the chance to advance.

Here is a take a look at a number of the key elements of the brand new preventing:

Why does the preventing at Aleppo matter?

Assad has been at struggle with opposition forces in search of his overthrow for 13 years, a battle that is killed an estimated half-million folks. Some 6.8 million Syrians have fled the nation, a refugee circulation that helped change the political map in Europe by fueling anti-immigrant far-right actions.

The roughly 30% of the nation not below Assad is managed by a spread of opposition forces and international troops. The U.S. has about 900 troops in northeast Syria, removed from Aleppo, to protect towards a resurgence by the Islamic State. Each the U.S. and Israel conduct occasional strikes in Syria towards authorities forces and Iran-allied militias. Turkey has forces in Syria as properly, and has affect with the broad alliance of opposition forces storming Aleppo.

Coming after years with few sizeable adjustments in territory between Syria’s opponents, the preventing “has the potential to be actually fairly, fairly consequential and probably game-changing,” if Syrian authorities forces show unable to carry their floor, mentioned Charles Lister, a longtime Syria analyst with the U.S.-based Center East Institute. Dangers embody if Islamic State fighters see it as a gap, Lister mentioned.

Ford mentioned the preventing in Aleppo would turn out to be extra broadly destabilizing if it drew Russia and Turkey — every with its personal pursuits to guard in Syria — into direct heavy preventing towards one another. –

What do we all know concerning the group main the offensive on Aleppo?

The U.S. and U.N. have lengthy designated the opposition pressure main the assault at Aleppo — Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, known by its initials HTS — as a terrorist group.

Its chief, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, emerged because the chief of al-Qaida’s Syria department in 2011, within the first months of Syria’s struggle. His battle was an unwelcome intervention to many in Syria’s opposition, who hoped to maintain the battle towards Assad’s brutal rule untainted by violent extremism.

Golani early on claimed duty for lethal bombings, pledged to assault Western forces and despatched non secular police to implement modest gown by ladies.

Golani has sought to remake himself in recent times. He renounced his al-Qaida ties in 2016. He is disbanded his non secular police pressure, cracked down on extremist teams in his territory, and portrayed himself as a protector of different religions. That features final yr permitting the primary Christian Mass within the metropolis of Idlib in years.

What is the historical past of Aleppo within the struggle?

On the crossroads of commerce routes and empires for 1000’s of years, Aleppo is likely one of the facilities of commerce and tradition within the Center East.

Aleppo was house to 2.3 million folks earlier than the struggle. Rebels seized the east aspect of town in 2012, and it turned the proudest image of the advance of armed opposition factions.

In 2016, authorities forces backed by Russian airstrikes laid siege to town. Russian shells, missiles and crude barrel bombs — gasoline canisters or different containers loaded with explosives and steel — methodically leveled neighborhoods. Ravenous and below siege, rebels surrendered Aleppo that yr.

The Russian army’s entry was the turning level within the struggle, permitting Assad to remain on within the territory he held.

This yr, Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo have hit Hezbollah weapons depots and Syrian forces, amongst different targets, in keeping with an unbiased monitoring group. Israel hardly ever acknowledges strikes at Aleppo and different government-held areas of Syria.