Practically three years after President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, his troops are making regular progress on the battlefield. Kyiv is grappling with shortages of males and weapons. And the brand new U.S. president may quickly halt Ukraine’s huge provide of navy support.
Putin is nearer than ever to reaching his goals within the battle-weary nation, with little incentive to come back to the negotiating desk, irrespective of how a lot U.S. President Donald Trump may cajole or threaten him, in response to Russian and Western consultants interviewed by The Related Press.
Each are signaling discussions on Ukraine -– by cellphone or in individual -– utilizing flattery and threats.
Putin mentioned Trump was “clever and pragmatic,” and even parroted his false claims of getting gained the 2020 election. Trump’s opening gambit was to name Putin “good” and to threaten Russia with tariffs and oil value cuts, which the Kremlin disregarded.
Trump boasted throughout the marketing campaign he may finish the struggle in 24 hours, which later turned six months. He is indicated the U.S. is talking to Russia about Ukraine with out Kyiv’s enter, saying his administration already had “very severe” discussions.
He steered he and Putin may quickly take “vital” motion towards ending the struggle, wherein Russia is struggling heavy casualties each day whereas its financial system endures stiff Western sanctions, inflation and a severe labor scarcity.
However the financial system has not collapsed, and since Putin has unleashed the harshest crackdown on dissent since Soviet occasions, he faces no home stress to finish the struggle.
“Within the West, the thought got here from someplace that it’s essential to Putin to succeed in an settlement and finish issues. This isn’t the case,” mentioned Fyodor Lukyanov, who hosted a discussion board with Putin in November and heads Moscow’s Council for International and Protection insurance policies.
Talks on Ukraine with out Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Putin needs to deal straight with Trump, chopping out Kyiv. That runs counter to the Biden administration’s place that echoed Zelenskyy’s name of “Nothing about Ukraine with out Ukraine.”
“We can’t let somebody resolve one thing for us,” Zelenskyy told AP, saying Russia needs the “destruction of Ukrainian freedom and independence.”
He steered any such peace deal would ship the damaging sign that adventurism pays to authoritarian leaders in China, North Korea and Iran.
Putin seems to count on Trump to undermine European resolve on Ukraine. Likening Europe’s leaders to Trump’s lapdogs, he mentioned Sunday they’ll quickly be “sitting obediently at their grasp’s ft and sweetly wagging their tails” because the U.S. president shortly brings order along with his ”character and persistence.”
Trump boasts of his deal-making prowess however Putin won’t simply give up what he considers Russia’s ancestral lands in Ukraine or squander an opportunity to punish the West and undermine its alliances and safety by forcing Kyiv right into a coverage of neutrality.
Trump might need a legacy as a peacemaker, however “historical past gained’t look kindly on him if he’s the person who provides this all away,” mentioned Sir Kim Darroch, British ambassador to the U.S. from 2016-19. Former NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu mentioned a deal favoring Moscow would ship a message of “American weak spot.”
Echoes of Helsinki
Trump and Putin final met in Helsinki in 2018 when there was “mutual respect” between them, mentioned former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, the summit host. However they’re “not very related,” he added, with Putin a “systematic” thinker whereas Trump acts like a businessman making “immediate” choices.
That would trigger a conflict as a result of Trump needs a fast decision to the struggle whereas Putin seeks a slower one which strengthens his navy place and weakens each Kyiv and the West’s political will.
Zelenskyy instructed AP that Putin “doesn’t wish to negotiate. He’ll sabotage it.” Certainly, Putin has already raised obstacles, together with authorized hurdles and claimed Zelenskyy has misplaced his legitimacy as president.
Putin hopes Trump will “get bored” or distracted with one other concern, mentioned Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat in Geneva who give up his publish after the invasion.
Russian consultants level to Trump’s first time period once they mentioned Putin realized such conferences achieved little.
One was a public relations victory for Moscow in Helsinki the place Trump sided with Putin as a substitute of his personal intelligence businesses on whether or not Russia meddled within the 2016 election. One other was in Singapore in 2019 with North Korean chief Kim Jong Un when he failed to reach a deal to halt Pyongyang’s nuclear program.
Earlier peace talks
The Kremlin final 12 months mentioned a draft peace agreement that Russia and Ukraine negotiated in Istanbul early within the battle — however which Kyiv rejected — might be the premise for talks.
It demanded Ukraine’s neutrality, stipulated NATO deny it membership, put limits on Kyiv’s armed forces and delayed talks on the standing of 4 Russian-occupied areas that Moscow later annexed illegally. Moscow additionally dismissed demands to withdraw its troops, pay compensation to Ukraine and face a global tribunal for its motion.
Putin hasn’t indicated he’ll budge however mentioned “if there’s a need to barter and discover a compromise answer, let anybody conduct these negotiations.”
“Engagement is just not the identical as negotiation,” mentioned Sir Laurie Bristow, British ambassador to Russia from 2016-20, describing Russia’s technique as “what’s mine is mine. And what’s yours is up for negotiation.”
Bondarev additionally mentioned Putin sees negotiations solely as a automobile “to ship him no matter he needs,” including it is “astonishing” that Western leaders nonetheless do not perceive Kremlin ways.
Meaning Putin is more likely to welcome any assembly with Trump, because it promotes Russia as a world power and performs nicely domestically, however he’ll provide little in return.
What Trump can and may’t do
Trump mentioned Zelenskyy ought to have made a take care of Putin to keep away from struggle, including he wouldn’t have allowed the battle to start out if he had been in workplace.
Trump has threatened Russia with extra tariffs, sanctions and oil value cuts, however there isn’t a financial “marvel weapon” that may finish the struggle, mentioned Richard Connolly, a Russian navy and financial professional at London’s Royal United Providers Institute.
And the Kremlin is disregarding the threats, possible as a result of the West already has closely sanctioned Russia.
Trump can also’t assure Ukraine would by no means be part of NATO, nor can he raise all Western sanctions, simply power Europe to renew importing Russian vitality or get the Worldwide Prison Courtroom to rescind its struggle crimes arrest warrant for Putin.
Talking to the Davos World Economic Forum, Trump mentioned he needs the OPEC+ alliance and Saudi Arabia to chop oil costs to push Putin to finish the struggle. The Kremlin mentioned that gained’t work as a result of the struggle is about Russian safety, not the worth of oil. It additionally would hurt U.S. oil producers.
“Within the tradeoff between Putin and home oil producers, I’m fairly positive which alternative Trump will make,” mentioned Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow on the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Heart in Berlin.
Trump may stress Russia by propping up the U.S. oil business with subsidies and raise the ten% commerce tariffs imposed on China in alternate for Beijing limiting financial ties with Moscow, which may go away it “actually remoted,” Connolly mentioned.
Europe additionally may underscore its dedication to Kyiv – and curry favor with Trump – by shopping for U.S. navy tools to present to Ukraine, mentioned Lord Peter Ricketts, a former U.Okay. nationwide safety adviser.
Lukyanov steered that Trump’s allies usually appear afraid of him and crumble beneath his threats.
The “huge query,” he mentioned, is what is going to occur when Putin gained’t.
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