JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Florida First Woman Casey DeSantis holds a slender lead over U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds within the early levels of the 2026 Republican main for governor, in accordance with a brand new ballot launched Wednesday by the College of North Florida’s Public Opinion Analysis Lab (PORL).
The survey of 797 registered Republican voters reveals DeSantis with 32% help, simply forward of Donalds at 29%, a distinction throughout the ballot’s margin of error. Eight % of respondents stated they might again Rep. Matt Gaetz, whereas 18% stay undecided.
DeSantis leads amongst girls, Hispanic voters, and people underneath 65, particularly in North and Central Florida. Donalds, in the meantime, attracts stronger help from males, voters 65 and older, these in South Florida, and Republicans who voted within the 2024 main. Notably, amongst 2024 main voters, Donalds leads DeSantis by 15 factors.
“DeSantis was the early frontrunner once we requested this final fall,” stated Dr. Michael Binder, PORL director. “However Trump’s endorsement of Donalds and the tightening timeline have shifted the race, making it a statistical toss-up.”
Coverage considerations amongst GOP voters additionally seem like shifting. The ballot discovered property insurance coverage was the highest concern, cited by 20% of respondents, adopted by housing prices (16%), immigration (15%), and the economic system, jobs, and inflation (13%). When mixed, property-related considerations account for almost half of all responses—up from 36% earlier this 12 months.
Favorability scores for key political figures stay excessive amongst Florida Republicans. Former President Donald Trump is considered favorably by 82% of respondents, whereas Gov. Ron DeSantis enjoys an 83% favorability ranking. Casey DeSantis holds a 57% favorability ranking, in comparison with Donalds at 43%. Nonetheless, 40% of respondents stated they’d by no means heard of Donalds, whereas simply 19% stated the identical concerning the First Woman.
When requested concerning the state-run Hope Florida Basis, a venture carefully related to Casey DeSantis, 63% stated they have been unfamiliar with it. Solely 23% considered it favorably. Dr. Sean Freeder, a political science professor at UNF, famous that this system’s low profile might assist DeSantis now, however warned that its hyperlinks to a latest scandal may damage her marketing campaign as soon as extra voters change into conscious.
On immigration coverage, Florida Republicans expressed robust help for strict enforcement. Seventy-nine % accredited of present nationwide immigration enforcement, together with detentions and deportations, whereas 75% supported native immigration sweeps. Regardless of this, solely 23% discovered it acceptable for authorized U.S. residents to be mistakenly deported.
The lately opened immigration detention heart often called “Alligator Alcatraz” obtained 65% approval. Help was decrease amongst Hispanic voters, youthful respondents, and first-generation immigrants.
The ballot additionally explored views on tax coverage. Requested whether or not they help eliminating property taxes for Florida owners—regardless of understanding these funds go towards providers like faculties and regulation enforcement—63% supported the thought, together with a majority of youthful voters.
“Floridians, significantly on the proper, actually don’t like paying taxes,” Binder stated. “Even when informed concerning the penalties, a strong majority wish to dispose of property taxes.”
Respondents have been additionally requested a couple of proposed 2026 constitutional modification to legalize leisure marijuana. Regardless of prior polls displaying common GOP help for legalization, solely 40% stated they might vote for the modification, whereas 58% stated they might oppose it.
“This discrepancy might be the results of confusion or lingering skepticism from the state’s latest marketing campaign towards the same poll measure in 2024,” Binder stated.
Methodology
The ballot was performed between July 14 and July 22, 2025, utilizing a mixed-method strategy of phone interviews and on-line surveys. The pattern included 797 lively registered Republican voters throughout Florida, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 proportion factors. The outcomes have been weighted for schooling, geography, race, gender, age, and occasion registration to replicate the state’s Republican voters.
UNF’s Public Opinion Analysis Lab is a non-partisan survey analysis heart and a member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative.
